Fractional-order modeling and analysis of dengue transmission incorporating aquatic environmental parameters

Abstract

This study investigates the role of environmental factors such as water temperature, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and Dissolved Oxygen (DO) in the spread dynamics of dengue fever during the aquatic developmental stage of mosquitoes. In order to better capture the memory effect and non-local properties of the biological process, a fractional order mathematical model is developed using the Caputo fractional derivative. The equilibrium points of the model are analyzed in terms of the basic reproduction number and stability properties. Furthermore, we theoretically prove the existence and uniqueness of the model's solution. Finally, numerical simulations are presented and interpreted to illustrate the effects of different environmental conditions on the spread of the disease.