Probabilistic back analysis of landslides in Arakli-Tasonu quarry, Northeast Turkey

Abstract

This study evaluates the landslides that occurred on 3 October 2005, 20 March 2006, and 19 October 2006 in Tasonu Limestone Quarry, Trabzon, and Northeast Turkey. The failure plane of the three landslides occurred on the same clay layer. Back analyses using probabilistic technique were carried out in order to assess the failure mechanism, determine the range of shear strength mobilized in the failure plane, estimate the groundwater condition at the time of failure and evaluate the influence of blasting. The values of shear strength parameters c and phi obtained by direct shear tests were considered as prior information about the input parameters. It was determined that the results of the probabilistic back analysis could be exploited in evaluating the formation conditions of previous landslides and the potential for future landslides in that area.