Analyzing urban growth dynamics for Gebze: Geographic information systems and ai-based parameter optimizaion

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the effect of population parameters on changes in urban land cover/use in the Gebze district for the years 2010, 2015, and 2024 through spatial analyses and a fractional-order mathematical model. The fractional-order mathematical model is applied to examine the dynamics of urban growth in the district, while model parameters are optimized via an artificial intelligence–based approach. Additionally, the potential urban growth scenarios for Gebze were simulated by MATLAB to project population growth for 2038. Subsequently, changes in land use for the specified years are calculated using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems. In light of the results obtained, industrialisation, among the economic indicators, emerges as a key factor influencing urban population growth and land use change in the Gebze district. The expansion of industrial areas by 95.2% between 2010 and 2024 has driven a 41.2% increase in urban growth, while projections for 2038 estimate that the population of Gebze district will range between 600.000 and over 2.000.000. While the increase in population due to industrial development in the district by 2038 is expected to bring economic benefits, it may also lead to certain ecological and socio-cultural issues.