CBAM-aligned dynamic techno-economic optimization of renewable hydrogen systems

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic framework for evaluating 20-year green hydrogen pro duction from grid-connected PEM electrolyzers powered by hybrid PV–WT systems. Rather than introducing new modelling or optimization techniques, the contribution lies in integrating detailed dynamic Simulink simulation, long-term component degradation, water sourcing and treatment costs, and hydrogen storage pathways within a unified, policy-aligned assessment. Using hourly PPA-based electricity prices for Türkiye, the framework com bines ANN surrogate modelling with MOPSO and NSGA-III to identify Pareto-optimal system sizes that balance the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and renewable fraction (RenFrac). Site-specific results indicate that Bandırma and Çes¸me favour MOPSO for robust low-cost configurations (LCOH ≈ 5.3–5.5 USD/kg, RenFrac ≈ 0.9), while Mersin is better represented by NSGA-III (6.5 USD/kg, 0.85). Sensitivity analyses show CAPEX and discount rate as primary cost drivers, whereas strategically aligning electrolyzer downtime with evening highprice hours enhances competitiveness. Economies of scale reduce LCOH by up to 40 % between 1 MW and 50 MW, with financial breakeven near 7.2 USD/kg and viable returns at ≥ 8 USD/kg. Overall, the framework provides actionable insights for project developers and policymakers, particularly in the context of CBAM and Türkiye’s 2053 net-zero pathway.