From private cars to micromobility: Network modeling and environmental assessment of short-distance trips in Izmir

Abstract

Urban transportation systems face increasing sustainability challenges due to the dominance of private-car use, particularly for short-distance trips. This study investigates the potential of micromobility to replace private-car travel on short-distance journeys and evaluates the resulting impacts on urban transportation networks and environmental sustainability. The analysis focuses on the Bornova district of Izmir and is based on a face-to-face survey conducted with 502 private-vehicle users. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests and a binary logit regression model to identify factors influencing the willingness to adopt micromobility. Within the surveyed sample of private-car users, modal-shift rates were estimated as 35% for trips up to 5 km and 33% for trips between 5 and 10 km. These rates were applied to the private-car demand and distance matrices developed for the year 2030 within the scope of the Izmir Transportation Master Plan, resulting in a revised private-car demand matrix and a separate demand matrix representing potential micromobility users. Network assignments were performed in the PTV VISUM modeling environment. Assignment results demonstrate notable network-level changes following micromobility integration. The total length of road segments with micromobility traffic volumes exceeding a threshold of 10 veh/h was calculated at 292.5 km. Environmental impacts were evaluated using a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework, revealing an approximate 5.5% reduction in total life-cycle CO2 emissions. Overall, the findings provide quantitative evidence supporting micromobility as an effective component of sustainable urban transport strategies and offer guidance for local governments in infrastructure planning and policy development.