Between alliance and autonomy: The evolution of skepticism in NATO–Türkiye relations

Abstract

This study examines the increasing skepticism shaping NATO–Türkiye relations and assesses its consequences for the Alliance’s credibility, cohesion, and capacity to fulfill its collective defense mandate. It contends that geopolitical tensions, identity-based differences, and the proliferation of disinformation have fundamentally reshaped alliance politics. Employing a qualitative research approach, the study draws on document analysis of NATO’s official statements, strategic reports, and policy texts concerning Türkiye, alongside discourse analysis of secondary sources, to investigate the conceptual foundations and long-term persistence of this skepticism. The findings indicate a clear departure from the cooperative dynamics of the Cold War era, replaced by a phase marked by strategic rivalries and mutual distrust. Divergent threat perceptions, disagreements over NATO’s relations with the European Union, and disputes surrounding the Alliance’s enlargement policies have transformed skepticism into an entrenched institutional feature. Türkiye’s unilateral military operations in Syria and its defense partnerships with non-NATO actors have further eroded trust, weakening the collective understanding of shared security principles. Although NATO’s primary mission remains to build solidarity and mutual trust among its members, growing normative and operational disagreements with Türkiye continue to strain the Alliance’s internal cohesion. The research highlights the need to reevaluate defense strategies, particularly regarding reliability, alliance unity, and operational coordination. Framing the analysis within geopolitical, normative, and institutional contexts, this study offers a nuanced understanding of the evolving dynamics of alliance politics in the 21st century.