Techno-economic feasibility and regression analysis of green hydrogen production from solar and wind energy in Türkiye

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to evaluating the economic viability of green hydrogen production in Turkey, powered by renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic systems, with cost calculations performed through regression analysis. The economic feasibility of hydrogen production was investigated for two distinct scenarios. In Scenario-1, the production costs of hydrogen produced using an electrolyzer were calculated for 15 different locations under two cases: Case-1 utilized photovoltaic systems, while Case-2 employed wind turbines. Multiple regression analyses were conducted on these results, leading to the development of two separate Cost of Hydrogen (CoH) equations. For Case-1, CoH values ranged from 5.65 to 7.01 $/kg across 30 locations. Projections considering an electrolyzer efficiency increase from 75% to 85%, and cost reductions of 57% and 64% by 2035 and 2050, respectively, revealed CoH values of 3.76-4.99 $/kg in 2035 and 3.61-4.84 $/kg in 2050. In Case-2, CoH values ranged from 2.01 to 4.58 $/kg, with projections for 2035 ranging from 1.36 to 3.26 $/kg and for 2050 from 1.31 to 3.15 $/kg. Scenario-2 examined a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)based renewable energy procurement model to meet electrolyzer energy demand. The effects of varying PPA prices, electrolyzer efficiencies, capacity factors, and costs on CoH were analyzed using MATLAB, yielding a regression equation for CoH. For PPA prices ranging from 0.02 to 0.10 $/kWh, with an electrolyzer efficiency of 75% and a cost multiplier of 100%, CoH values ranged from 1.95 to 6.16 $/kg. An increase in electrolyzer efficiency from 75% to 85% resulted in an 11.77% reduction in CoH. Furthermore, reducing the real discount rate from 6% to 3% at a PPA price of 0.02 $/kWh led to a decrease in CoH from 2.09 to 1.88 $/kg.