Comparison of statistical methods to graphical method in precipitation trend analysis, a case study: Coruh Basin, Turkey

Abstract

It is a known fact that the precipitation characteristics will become irregular as a result of climate change resulting from global warming. Trend analysis is one of the most efective methods of observing the efects of climate change on precipitation. This study compares the changes in precipitation with traditional trend analysis methods and graphical method (divided into subcategories using the Z-Score Index). Some preliminary analyzes (missing data estimation, homogeneity check, autocorrelation, and removal of the autocorrelation), which are lacking in many studies in the literature, have been performed. In this context, the monthly total precipitation data of the precipitation stations belonging to the Coruh Basin, one of the most important basins of Turkey, for the period 1972–2011 were used. As a result of the study, it was determined that all the stations’ data were homogeneous, and 92% of them were at the Class A level. While 100% trend is determined in Innovative Trend Analysis in total annual precipitation, this rate was just 40% at Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho at 95% confdence. An increasing trend was determined in the “high” group of total spring precipitation at all stations.