Monitoring the spatial spillover effects of wildfire carbon emissions and urban settlements on biodiversity loss in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Wildfires in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) drylands are major drivers of deforestation, forest degradation, and biodiversity loss, with consequences that often extend beyond national borders. However, the spatial impacts of wildfire-related carbon emissions, burned areas, and urban expansion on biodiversity remain understudied. This research addresses this gap by applying the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to annual data from 40 SSA countries spanning 2003–2020. The results indicate significant negative spatial dependence among countries. Domestic carbon emissions from wildfires and the total land area burned both show a strong positive effect on biodiversity loss, though their spillover effects on neighboring countries are negligible. Urban expansion is also found to significantly intensify biodiversity decline. Conversely, non-forested ecosystems exert influence primarily through cross-border spillovers. These findings emphasize that biodiversity threats in SSA are shaped largely by domestic drivers, particularly wildfires and urbanization, while spillover effects play a smaller but selective role. Accordingly, the study recommends prioritizing national conservation strategies that directly address wildfire management and sustainable urban growth to safeguard biodiversity across the region.