Probabilistic analysis applied to rock slope stability: a case study from northeast Turkey

Abstract

In the evaluation of rock slope stability, there are many kinds of uncertainties including the input parameters uncertainty, the calculations uncertainty, and the procedure. Slope stability analysis can be classified into deterministic analysis or probabilistic analysis depending on how uncertainty is incorporated and evaluated. Probabilistic method takes into consideration the inherent variability and uncertainties in the analysis parameter. In this study, rock slope stability analysis, especially probability analyzes will be reviewed. In addition, probabilistic slope stability analysis and probabilistic back-analysis was applied to landslides which occurred at the Arakli-Tasonu quarry, NE Turkey, on October 3, 2005, March 20, 2006, and October 19, 2006. The sliding plane of the landslides passed through the thick clay layer. The tension cracks developed behind and are parallel to these landslides scarps. Considering these information, it is thought that the new failure can develop in these slopes. For this, no technical entry was allowed for this part of the quarry area. Therefore, the probabilistic stability analysis of these new slopes was performed. The values input parameters, shear strength parameters, and depth of the water in the tension crack used in these analyses are obtained by probabilistic back-analyses.