Techno-economic viability and future price projections of photovoltaic-powered green hydrogen production in strategic regions of Turkey

Abstract

This study assesses the economic feasibility of utilizing photovoltaic power for producing green hydrogen in Mersin, ces,me, and Bandirma. We considered the factors for site selection, such as regional hydrogen demand, solar energy potential, water availability, export opportunities, and existing infrastructure. The research focuses on generating electricity, hydrogen, and oxygen using a 5 MW photovoltaic system. The research finds that the capacity factor for ces,me, Mersin, and Bandirma is 18.9%, 17.7%, and 15.4% respectively, determining the optimal electrolyzer size. A comprehensive cost analysis is conducted. We employed two methodologies to evaluate the levelized cost of hydrogen. The first approach integrates the levelized cost of electricity for the photovoltaic system, while the second approach considers the annualized capital and operational expenditure for all system components. The analysis highlights the impact of electrolyzer efficiency and timeframe on hydrogen production costs. Estimated costs for Bandirma in 2023 are US$6.8 per kilogram at 70% electrolyzer efficiency, projected to decrease by 2050. With 80% electrolyzer efficiency, costs in 2023 would be US$5.87 per kilogram, with further reductions projected for 2050. We have observed similar trends for ces,me and Mersin. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive cost estimation, taking into account varying discount rates, energy purchase agreement prices, CAPEX and OPEX values, revenues, and site selection, while considering electrolyzer efficiency, to enhance the economic feasibility of photovoltaic-electrolyzer systems.